Agence France Press reported in Novembercovering an article from the famous investigative journalist, Seymour Hersh. It is not clear at this time why there would be such discrepancy between two presumably close intelligent services, the CIA and Mossad. A similar plan by Israel not using tactical nuclear weapons, however was created one year earlierthe same authors at the Sunday Times had reported. Alternatively, the reporting could be accurate, for the reports do note that the strikes would happen only if called for.
The purpose of the financial forecast is to evaluate current and future fiscal conditions to guide policy and programmatic decisions.
A financial forecast is a fiscal management tool that presents estimated information based on past, current, and projected financial conditions. This will help identify future revenue and expenditure trends that may have an immediate or long-term influence on government policies, strategic goals, or community services.
The forecast is an integral part of the annual budget process. An effective forecast allows for improved decision-making in maintaining fiscal discipline and delivering essential community services.
The GFOA recommends that governments at all levels forecast major revenues and expenditures. The forecast should extend several years into the future. The forecast, along with its underlying assumptions and methodology, should be clearly stated and made available to stakeholders in the budget process.
It also should be concisely presented in the final budget document. The forecast should be regularly monitored and periodically updated. The key steps in a sound forecasting process include the following: The first step in the forecasting process is to define the fundamental issues impacting the forecast.
The results of this initial step will provide insight into which forecasting methods are most appropriate and will help create a common understanding among the forecasters as to the goals of the forecasting process.
There are four key questions to consider when defining assumptions for the forecast: What is the time horizon of the forecast? This might make it harder to balance the budget, but reduces the risk of an actual shortfall. Therefore, a government should be transparent concerning its own forecasting policy and underlying assumptions.
Be aware of current laws or expected changes in laws that affect forecasts. What are the major revenues and expenditure categories? To support the forecasting process, use statistical data as well as the accumulated judgment and expertise of individuals inside and perhaps also outside the organization.
For instance, department heads may have an insight into activities within their own section. This would also include events that could cause a disruption in the operating environment and in prevailing trends. Both are important for forecasting because they allow the forecaster to more intelligently build quantitative models and to make a forecast using his or her own judgment.
Assumptions should be documented for future reference, so the financial forecasting process has some basis to start from at the beginning of each cycle. Also, become familiar with other longer-term planning efforts of the organization or other organizations that impact financial decisions and the fiscal environment.
The analysis should include an examination of historical data and relevant economic conditions. This improves the quality of the forecast both by giving the forecaster better insight into when and what quantitative techniques might be appropriate and also is useful for supplementing forecasting methods.
The forecaster is looking for consistent patterns or trends. In particular, the forecaster should look for evidence related to: Does the revenue or expenditure tend to vary with the level of economic activity in the community or are they independent of cycles?
How do broader market forces impact key expenditures, such as pension contributions affected by investment returns? Outliers and historical anomalies.
Does the data contain any extreme values that need to be explained? Are there important relationships between variables that could aid in forecasting? Keep in mind that the chosen method for one program may differ for another. While complex techniques may get more accurate answers in particular cases, simpler techniques tend to perform just as well or better on average.
Also, simpler techniques require less data, less expertise on the part of the forecaster, and less overall effort. Three basic models of forecasting to consider include: Extrapolation uses historical revenue data to predict future behavior by projecting the trend forward. Trending is very easy to use and is commonly employed by forecasters.
Moving averages and single exponential smoothing are somewhat more complex, but should be well within the capabilities of most forecasters. Regression analysis is a statistical procedure based on the relationship between independent variables factors that have predictive power for the revenue or expenditure source and a dependent variable expenditure source being predicted.
Assuming a linear relationship exists between the independent and dependent variables, one or more independent variables can be used to predict future revenues or expenditures.
Hybrid forecasting methods are very common in practice and can deliver superior results. Making the forecast and using forecast ranges are included within the implementation methods.Having then seen the US break Iraq, Iran may have been able to stop because Iraq was no longer a threat.
and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. such as, “It is the goal of Iran to wipe Israel off the.
(DCAA) report, technical evaluation, independent government cost estimate (IGCE) and fact finding. • The technical analyst is responsible for the preparation of the technical analysis report that is an integral part of the contracting officer’s team of experts for negotiation of contract instruments.
After successfully removing Saddam from power, the US established a democratic government and for the first time in many years Iraq may hold free and fair elections (Dolan, ).
The US government before invading Iraq had to seek the consent of congress and the United Nations. Global trade - The World Trade Organization (WTO) deals with the global rules of trade between nations.
Its main function is to ensure that global trade flows smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. Sep 16, · The success of a free Iraq is critical to the security of the United States.
A free Iraq will deny al-Qaida a safe haven. A free Iraq will counter the destructive ambitions of Iran. Essentials Guide to Strategic Planning Welcome Strategic Planner! To assist you throughout your planning process, we have created a how-to guide on The Basics of Strategic Planning which will take you through the planning process step-by-step and keep you on track.